A
recent sero-survey (testing for antibodies) conducted by ICMR has indicated
that up to 4.5 million residents of Delhi may have been infected by the novel
coronavirus already (35 times more than the roughly 125,000 who have been found
coronavirus positive through swab tests), shown no symptoms, suffered not even mildly,
and recovered on their own without seeing a doctor. This is corroborated by the findings of a private patho lab, Thyrocare, which indicates that 180
million Indians may have already acquired natural immunity through
infection and recovery. Which seems to confirm what I guessed in an earlier
post: that Indians have a high degree of natural immunity to the virus. (by the
way, if 180 million have been infected and the total death toll is about
28,000, work out the vanishingly small mortality rate yourself. Heart attacks,
cancer and traffic accidents kill vastly more people, but the whole country,
politicians and doctors included, have simply forgotten!)
In
the same vein, the chief secretary to the West Bengal government said only a
few days ago that we should remember there are currently only about 660
critical cases in a population close to 100 million in this state: hardly a
justification for mass panic.
In
my own town, the newspapers, local word of mouth news as well as my Aarogya
Setu app says that the number of people currently diagnosed as infected within
the last month keeps oscillating between 30 and 37 – two or three are being
freshly infected every day, two or three are recovering daily, there has not
been a single mortality in four months. And yet, what people are saying is ki bhoyonkor byapar hochchhe (what a
disaster is unfolding)!
If
such vast numbers have been infected already and recovered with nothing more
than mild symptoms or none at all, that should be cause for good cheer and a
rising tidal wave of renewed confidence, right? If not one person has died of
this disease in my town in four months, while a so-called pandemic has been
raging countrywide, it should be more so, right? And if the infection is
spreading yet causing so little harm while widening the net of immune people,
that should boost our morale, shouldn’t it? So why is the reverse happening? Just
what is causing the rising tide of panic?
Very
much to the point, my mother, who has been teaching science for fifty years and
is one of the sanest and calmest people I have ever met, has been laughing to
see that a lot of ‘educated adults’ who are desperately waiting either for ‘herd
immunity’ or for a miracle vaccine to emerge have no idea at all that ‘herd
immunity’ requires the infection to spread as fast as possible, nor that
vaccination actually means infecting you deliberately with a (mild) dose of the
virus so that your immune system can develop a resistance to it. Make of that
what you will. Meanwhile, we have resigned ourselves to long-persisting mass madness.
As a student wisely said, we who survive and return to a normal life should
remember for the rest of our lives that this was the greatest panic-demic we have seen, not a
pandemic!
P.S., July 23: You really must look up this latest post on my other blog.
P.S., July 23: You really must look up this latest post on my other blog.
6 comments:
As we discussed earlier, sir, this panic-demic can only be reduced by the government efforts. They just need to advertise this in a reverse manner, making people aware that there's no need to worry.
I'm getting so irritated with this, now, as I'm hearing a lot of stupid comments, around me.
There is definitely a lot of hysteria surrounding this virus, but mostly because it is so new, and we do not know the long term consequences of being infected by it.
Most people dying are those with co-morbidities. Things are going to get worse in the fall when the flu season kicks in, as it will be difficult to differentiate between COVID and the common flu.
Ah, Harman, thank you very much indeed for commenting. I thought I had lost you a long time ago! And an input from a surgeon is particularly valuable. I wonder whether you know this, but in India (and even more so in Bengal) the 'hysteria' is especially strong among doctors, who should have known better than to panic. A very large proportion of doctors doing private practice in my town have kept their chambers closed right from March. Not all of them are old and feeble either. Do they all have co-morbidities, then? I wonder...
Physicians here have been working overtime for the most part. As surgeons, we were forced to halt elective surgery cases for a period of 6 weeks, mostly because the hospital ICU beds were all occupied with COVID patients. After the initial surge, COVID cases are now manageable and we are back to pre-COVID schedules. As surgeons, we are used to working with communicable diseases and practicing universal precautions, so this is nothing new. The acute effects of this virus do seem to be much more severe than the flu. This is something we have to learn to live with, just like HIV. It will force the US to invest more heavily in pandemic preparedness, and streamlining supply chains for essential commodities, which will be beneficial in the long run. I was in Singapore and Kolkata in early March for a conference for a couple of days, and I have to say both of those cities had better and comprehensive airport screening protocols than the Bay Area at that time.
Dear Sir,
It has been about 13 years since we had last communicated; so to begin with: a big hello to you! Hope you and your family are doing well.
In my opinion we are all susceptible to the "herd-mentality". But I attribute this extreme panic mostly to the hype being spread by 24 hour news channels and the fact that almost every living person has access to Facebook and WhatsApp makes it worse. I think that we are almost programmed to not question something in written format.
Having said this, the complete lack of panic on the other hand hasn't been without consequences (Italy, Spain, the US, Belgium to some extent etc.). I am not nearly qualified enough to comment on which behaviour is right vs wrong. But I would always opt for caution when possible. Personally I was fortunate enough to have the opportunity to stay at home and be safe and I am thankful for that. As of today the death toll does stand at 693,405 with 6 M+ active cases. This number isn’t entirely insignificant considering that this has occurred in less than a year. Additionally there is always the possibility of the genome mutation leading to increased lethality or long term effects.
Ignoring the grimness of the fatalities for a moment, if I get to live through this, I gain immense bragging rights. Oh the stories I would cook up for my grandchildren! :)
First off, Siddheswar, thank you for writing. I wish you would communicate a little more than once in thirteen years, seeing that none of us are going to live several centuries, coronavirus or no coronavirus.
As for taking (rational-) precautions, I am all for it, not just when a'pandemic' happens, but always. That is why, for instance, I have avoided crowds all my life. What I absolutely refuse is to lose all sense of proportion and live (or rather, merely somehow survive, like a worm) in a state of perpetual terror or panic. Death is, I am convinced beyond all persuasion, not the worst thing that can happen to us.
Numbers tell you different stories, depending on how keenly and calmly you interpret them, and on your personal perspective (which, as we know, can be disastrously confused in a situation of mass panic). What I have tried to tell my readers all along is to have a balanced perspective, and to interpret the data sanely. 600K deaths might sound ghastly unless you look at the whole picture. Every year 18 million die of cardiovascular disease, 3 million children of malnutrition, and 1.35 million in road accidents. If we were really equally - and sanely - serious about ALL deaths, why is there absolutely so little concern about such deaths, far less panic? I know my chances of dying of a heart attack are far higher than of the corona infection: it is that knowledge which keeps me from going mad.
And yes, this has been the first pandemic in the era of social media: that, too, I have noted in an earlier post.
Take care.
Sir
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