Since the whole world is indulging in every kind of speculation, from very sane to completely lunatic, why shouldn't I join in?
Still, I shall start with hard facts which nobody has denied. China claims to have controlled the epidemic very quickly, even if the death toll might have been several times what they have reported. Most of the rest of Asia has followed suit. Meanwhile, the same toll has been merely creeping up in India: in the month or so since the alarm went out, it has gone up to only about 77 (even the best newspapers cannot wholly agree on the exact figure, leave alone the social media), whereas it is literally galloping in the USA - New York City alone has seen 3,500-odd deaths already, and the numbers show no signs of flattening out yet. One great myth, I hope, has been busted for ever and ever: the Americans are NOT far more advanced than us in all respects. Indeed, though it sounds cruel, it is good to hear that the US president is begging India to send a drug not easily available there (hydroxychloroquine, commonly prescribed for malaria, which, in combination with Azithromycin, seems to be working well on many patients) and accepting a large donation of ventilators from - surprise, surprise - China! (see this news item).
What explains the tremendous difference in numbers? It can't be because we are more God-fearing: there's more than enough of religious loonies in America too. It certainly can't be because we have a far better medicare system (Germany has one that is better than America's, yet there have been a lot of deaths there, too). Surely not very many Indians will claim that it is because our prime minister has superhuman powers to protect us. To my mind, it has to boil down to one of two possibilities, or maybe both: perhaps a hot dry climate does prevent the virus from doing too much harm (look at most of Africa), or maybe simply because we live in far tougher conditions, we have much higher natural immunity. In happier times, I used to joke in class that we have the best bio-weapons in the world: welcome an invading American army with open arms and feed them all on roadside paani-puri: 90% of them will be dead or dying of diarrhoea within three days...
Care to join issue with me, readers?
8 comments:
Dear Sir,
There are three reasons for the low number of deaths in India.
1) Corona Go, Go Corona
2) Beating thaalis
3) Lighting diyas and bursting crackers
Yours faithfully,
Swarnava Mitra.
Maybe, Swarnava. I shall draw your attention to the first sentence in the post, and leave it at that.
Dear Sir,
You may be right about the dry and warm climate; I recall reading a research paper that arrived at the same conclusion, although there may be enough reason to believe that the research was done in haste and not properly peer-reviewed. Anyway, observations in India and certain parts of Africa certainly lend credibility to this theory.
The other reason why we are seeing such low numbers in India could be due to lack of testing. But then again, the comparingly low number of deaths suggest a different story (I think it is reasonable to argue that although the lack of proper widescale testing is not correctly estimating the spread of the disease, the low number of deaths indicate that COVID-19 has not yet become the sort of pandemic that many thought it would).
I am very disappointed to see our prime minster's lacklustre response in face of this crisis. A real leader would have regularly updated the country about future plans in response to this disease, told us about scientific predictions in context of India, informed us more about how the lockdown is being monitored and its possible extension (and hopefully given us more time to be prepared), talked about his visions to combat the inevitable economic slowdown, shared plans about building more isolation wards, ventilators, PPEs, and in general, showed us concrete steps as to how India has planned and equipped herself to deal with this humanitarian crisis. Instead, he mumbles some generic feel-good stuff about solidarity and assigns mindless tasks that are not supposed to do anyone any good apart from playing along to silly gimmicks. Why can't he hold a press conference along with the health minister, infectious disease experts, epidemiologists, economists and make the citizens more informed? Even a numbnut like Trump tries to do these things...
As I write this, I can see that Italy has reported the lowest hospitalization and death counts in past three weeks, and the governor of New York believes that New York may have reached its peak already. I hope, in a similar vein, that we have seen the worst for India and things return back to normal, sooner or later.
Jai Hind!
Regards,
Joydeep
Dear Sir,
The above comment was sarcastic. I saw some incredible stupidity and that pained me. I am sorry if that comment offended you.
Jokes apart, I think temperature is also a factor. COVID-19 seems more akin to the flu virus. India is considerably warmer than most of the USA. As we approach summer, I think we will see some tapering off of cases.
Yours faithfully,
Swarnava Mitra.
I am hoping that the panic - mostly government created and media fuelled - will recede soon. The papers are reporting that in many places people have started going out already: which is the sane thing to do, as long as certain precautions are taken.
I have just received a comment saying that the death rate is so low in India because here, unlike in, say, Spain, Italy and the US, people care far more about their family members. What do you think about that?
Dear Sir,
First of all i wish that you are in good health now, may you pupu didi and your whole family be well and stay safe.
sir, after reading the last line it made me giggle very hard as i remembered that you used to say that in your classes.
Although i think that hot climate of India is a reason for the low spreading of this disease but our researchers are still skeptical about this theory cause WHO has mentioned in it,s website that there is no direct relation of COVID-19 getting killed in hot weather, as this virus has also spread in africa though the infected are much less than that of cold countries.
It has also been found that the stocks of an chinese mask factory has upsurged by 416% recently from that we can draw a conclusion that china knew something from beforehand.
I believe one reason for the rapid rise in COVID-19 cases from the past 8-10 days is due to the Tablighi Jamaat incident although i found that during this time most people are not saying anything about this incident even many so called Liberal Leaders have glued their mouth this time, but when it comes to lighting a candle or applauding for the health workers and police of India they can protest against these.
The irony is no has been infected due to lighting a candle or for applauding for the health workers but definetly been due to an religious gathering but alas we never look into those thing.
Regards
Siddhartha Pal
Dear sir,
What are your views regarding the reports which claim that China is behind all this COVID-19 misery? Some of them even say that Beijing, itself, was preparing some sort of a bio-weapon, I don't know, which leaked or whatever, due to some human error. These reports have claimed that the Chinese government has been hiding significant statistics related to the number of human casualties. I mean, this is too BIG an allegation!
From Trump naming the virus as "Chinese Virus" to Italy claiming that China sold them faulty testing kits! There's a whole lot of politics going on!
Sir, if you could clarify and express your views in this regard.
Yours faithfully,
Swapnil.
I have made a lifelong point of not commenting on things about which I know too little, Swapnil, unlike most people, who I find are far more interested in spreading opinions rather than knowing facts, or even working hard to separate fact from fiction! That merely adds to the noise, and to mental confusion. Heads of state might know things which we ordinary mortals don't, or they might be fudging data or even making up stories for their own inscrutable ends, how should I know? And when I don't know, isn't it the wisest course to refrain from commenting?
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