Well, I am far too insignificant a person for my likes and dislikes to affect how the world goes, or even this country, so now we are in a 'lockdown' mode more or less all over India. I have had to cancel classes for a prolonged period entirely against my will, and there is no way I can 'work from home' at a time when social distancing has acquired paramount importance. Today was my first day of enforced indolence, and I didn't like it much. Thank God my daughter is with me. She has the privilege of working from home, though, so maybe she's slightly better off...
In any case, she has written something on being gainfully occupied in the time of Covid-19 which I think all my readers should visit - for their benefit, not hers. If a few of them like it and write in to tell her so, I shall be glad.
P.S., March 25: I have been reading up on the opinions of the best experts, as well as listening to the warnings and counsel of top government leaders from around the world. I shall cite some of them here. First off, please note that much of the panic is concocted and entirely avoidable: this is the first epidemic, if it is that, in the era of social media, overflowing with fake news of the stupidest, most uninformed and fear-mongering sort, and that is our biggest problem. Note, next, that the disease broke out in China at the end of 2019, and peaked in end-February; they have already brought it under control with a little more than 80,000 infections and 3,000 deaths. Also, though the disease is supposed to have spread worldwide, more than 80% of the deaths outside China have happened so far in only three countries: Italy, Spain and Iran. In India, just before the lockdown began - in a country so densely populated, so poor, so ill informed, so careless about health and hygiene, the number of infected had been a little short of 500, and the number of dead, 10. Remember to stay clean, avoid crowds and catching a cold if you can, and unless you are very young or very old, there is hardly ANY need to worry. Infection does not mean you have to fall ill, 80% of those who fall ill show only mild symptoms, and, I repeat, the fatality rate is very low, unless you are old and already ill with other diseases (read this article, especially the last lines). Lockdown is good to slow the spread and succour the desperately stretched healthcare services, but I shall stick my neck out and lay a wager on two things: the government will not be able to maintain the lockdown for very long without resorting to draconian measures which is bound to turn public opinion quickly and sharply against it (see the last lines of the linked article), and millions are NOT going to die. Please read this interview of one of the world's top 'virus hunters'.
I must also note, in passing, that one over-zealous chief minister (I won't even deign to speculate either on his IQ or his sense of humanity and decency) has threatened a 'shoot at sight order' in case people are found outdoors. The message, unless I have got it all wrong, is this: you are free to die of an accident or heart attack or snake bite, but we'd kill you if you risk dying of the coronavirus. With rulers like these, what hope for the ruled?
Meanwhile, I worry terribly about a) the fate of the vast majority of our poor working class who are in the unorganized sector, and have no social security or insurance or savings to fall back upon: how are they going to survive almost a month with no earnings? (read this article: one of them has told the reporter he is far more likely to die of hunger than of the virus); b) how are essential supplies going to be maintained for weeks with so many restrictions on mass movement of goods and people? and c) won't a vast number of people go mad with sitting at home doing nothing, even if they have enough to eat?
March 26: The worries are mounting rapidly. Do look up this article and this one in today's newspaper. Another concern is that given the cramped and unhealthy conditions in which a very large number of people live (think of metro slums), locking them all at home may not help too much to contain the infection.
I am truly glad that the central government has at least begun to move on the other great concern - how to prevent the vast number of poor from suffering too much - by announcing a large relief package. Knowing how leaky, clumsy and slow government delivery systems are, however, I strongly believe that the well-off public at large should come forward to help. I have started doing my bit; I hope a lot of my readers will do the same locally by contributing to relief funds and programmes being set in motion by NGOs and individual social activists. Every little helps: a thousand rupees donated by ten million individuals each (let's say everyone who owns a car and a decent house) would make a fund of Rs. 1,000 crore. That can feed a lot of people for a month or two.
March 28: It seems that the epicentre of the infection has now moved to the USA, while it is slowing down in Europe. And for some humour, look this up on my other blog.
March 29: It's barely a week into the countrywide lockdown, but I think anger is beginning to spread among a lot of people who do not enjoy the luxury of sitting at home for weeks and months on end without significant hurt to their stomachs or their pockets...
P.S., March 25: I have been reading up on the opinions of the best experts, as well as listening to the warnings and counsel of top government leaders from around the world. I shall cite some of them here. First off, please note that much of the panic is concocted and entirely avoidable: this is the first epidemic, if it is that, in the era of social media, overflowing with fake news of the stupidest, most uninformed and fear-mongering sort, and that is our biggest problem. Note, next, that the disease broke out in China at the end of 2019, and peaked in end-February; they have already brought it under control with a little more than 80,000 infections and 3,000 deaths. Also, though the disease is supposed to have spread worldwide, more than 80% of the deaths outside China have happened so far in only three countries: Italy, Spain and Iran. In India, just before the lockdown began - in a country so densely populated, so poor, so ill informed, so careless about health and hygiene, the number of infected had been a little short of 500, and the number of dead, 10. Remember to stay clean, avoid crowds and catching a cold if you can, and unless you are very young or very old, there is hardly ANY need to worry. Infection does not mean you have to fall ill, 80% of those who fall ill show only mild symptoms, and, I repeat, the fatality rate is very low, unless you are old and already ill with other diseases (read this article, especially the last lines). Lockdown is good to slow the spread and succour the desperately stretched healthcare services, but I shall stick my neck out and lay a wager on two things: the government will not be able to maintain the lockdown for very long without resorting to draconian measures which is bound to turn public opinion quickly and sharply against it (see the last lines of the linked article), and millions are NOT going to die. Please read this interview of one of the world's top 'virus hunters'.
I must also note, in passing, that one over-zealous chief minister (I won't even deign to speculate either on his IQ or his sense of humanity and decency) has threatened a 'shoot at sight order' in case people are found outdoors. The message, unless I have got it all wrong, is this: you are free to die of an accident or heart attack or snake bite, but we'd kill you if you risk dying of the coronavirus. With rulers like these, what hope for the ruled?
Meanwhile, I worry terribly about a) the fate of the vast majority of our poor working class who are in the unorganized sector, and have no social security or insurance or savings to fall back upon: how are they going to survive almost a month with no earnings? (read this article: one of them has told the reporter he is far more likely to die of hunger than of the virus); b) how are essential supplies going to be maintained for weeks with so many restrictions on mass movement of goods and people? and c) won't a vast number of people go mad with sitting at home doing nothing, even if they have enough to eat?
March 26: The worries are mounting rapidly. Do look up this article and this one in today's newspaper. Another concern is that given the cramped and unhealthy conditions in which a very large number of people live (think of metro slums), locking them all at home may not help too much to contain the infection.
I am truly glad that the central government has at least begun to move on the other great concern - how to prevent the vast number of poor from suffering too much - by announcing a large relief package. Knowing how leaky, clumsy and slow government delivery systems are, however, I strongly believe that the well-off public at large should come forward to help. I have started doing my bit; I hope a lot of my readers will do the same locally by contributing to relief funds and programmes being set in motion by NGOs and individual social activists. Every little helps: a thousand rupees donated by ten million individuals each (let's say everyone who owns a car and a decent house) would make a fund of Rs. 1,000 crore. That can feed a lot of people for a month or two.
March 28: It seems that the epicentre of the infection has now moved to the USA, while it is slowing down in Europe. And for some humour, look this up on my other blog.
March 29: It's barely a week into the countrywide lockdown, but I think anger is beginning to spread among a lot of people who do not enjoy the luxury of sitting at home for weeks and months on end without significant hurt to their stomachs or their pockets...
7 comments:
Dear Sir,
I have been watching the latest developments in the world with growing unease. It frightens me that such knee jerk reactions could pave the way for despots trying to amass power and take away democratic rights. Rights that have been won through a lot of struggle.global governments all over the world with the exception of a few ( Brazil, Japan, South Korea) have used this disease as an opportunity. As for WHO they have form in declaring pandemics before that do very little harm. As of right now, the Ë‹disease has affected 0.005% of the global population of whom 27% have recovered. Informed opinion seems to have become a very rare commodity but if our nations premier copies speeches directly from European counterparts and applies the same measures , I am bewildered. What works here might not necessarily work in India. I am thinking of the millions who have to work every day to get an income, of the millions of children who cannot have a days meal anymore.... May God help us.
Warm regards,
Subhasis Chakraborty
I worry along the very same lines, Subhashis. No better way to take over absolute power than to reduce people to a herd of terrified and obedient sheep, thus silencing all sane and necessary political criticism.
But I had the impression that the German government's response has been among the most efficient as well as sober. Am I wrong?
You might note that after receiving your comment I have added quite a bit to this blogpost.
Dear Sir,
An eight by eight room in a slum in urban India typically houses at least four people. The population density within a typical large slum in any metro city is well in excess of two lakh per square kilometre. Corralling the urban poor into pockets that are this crowded, and confining them there for weeks on end, may make the non-poor feel safer. But does it really reduce the overall probability of contagion? It's just matter of days before whatever sanitation facilities or food get overwhelmed. Wouldn't that greatly increase the mass outbreaks of dysentery, cholera and other contagious disease?
There's a difference between a lockdown of say, West Los Angeles, and that of Dharavi, Mumbai.
With the Railways cancelling all passenger trains, I can hardly imagine the nightmare of daily wage labourers, and people dependent upon the railways without the means to avail public transport.
But sure, let's all clap for them and bang our plates so we can put our collective conscience to rest and free ourselves from our shared complicity!
With regards,
Aveek
Wholly and frighteningly true, Aveek. Strange coincidence that I saw your comment just after I uploaded the latest addendum to my post! I am glad, though, that many decent people both in and outside government have started thinking and acting in the right direction. May God be kind to us. And as for your last line, let us be grateful that at least Donald Trump does not rule this country!
Sir
Dear Sir,
Demonetisation II is upon us. Firstly, the government's very attitude is disturbing. On Tuesday, the Prime Minister addresses the nation at 8 pm and every activity has to cease by midnight. The citizens get only a couple of hours to prepare for this lockdown. Even the government was unprepared. An hour after his address, the Prime Minister tweeted that essential supplies would be available. By this time, panic buying had already hit the streets.
As of today, there have been 16 deaths in our country(barring 1 migration) and the number of infected has been a little short of 700. Despite the lockdown, there have been 6 deaths in the last two days.
Still, I would say people are more likely to die of hunger than the virus. As one of the articles stated, 1.5 lakh families are homeless and 6.69 lakh households are destitute or living on alms. How will they feed themselves?
The daily workers are stranded and are walking hundreds of miles to reach their cities. No relief has been provided yet. Reetika Khera says that stadiums and food should be made available to them. This will sustain them but what about their families. What will their families feed on for the next three weeks?
Thanks to this ill-managed lockdown, people will die of Coronavirus and hunger.
Yours faithfully,
Swarnava Mitra.
Dear Suvro da,
Thank you for writing about this with the sanity and perspective that you have. I have been pooh-poohing this since the time it had become a trending topic on social media and since the time the young people started bringing the news to the office. More and more strongly, I think the fear mongering and the sense of panic dipping into gloom and doom are far more distressing and disturbing and annoying, and much more than the virus. Wild tales and wild predictions with strange algorithmic models calculate death in millions from the virus. A sane person – one doesn’t even need to be an ace at Math – can see the problems with those ridiculous graphs and world maps. The numbers are there for people to see. So people should compare those numbers and look at the facts of the case in hand and at the history of just the varied kinds of flu. Given the ghastly diseases that have ravaged humankind – the mania and panic over this one – given the numbers – is either laughable or perplexing or both. And yes, precautions are necessary but you have already stressed the same.
Sometimes I am wont to think that maybe people relish the prospect of the death by millions. Maybe it is something similar to the way crowds used to flock to see a man being quartered or a woman being burnt at the stake, and the like. The intensity with which so many people wish to believe that this virus is taking over the world is weird and then there are many more who are simply taken in at the flood “if so many people are worried and panic-stricken – maybe I should be too!” That common people behave this way would be one thing but when quite a few leaders of the world are either lackadaisical or up-in-arms in panic but with little planning (or with some hidden agenda), and the poor and disenfranchised are yet again the ones to be without any ground to stand on – it spells a disconcerting global situation. This – for me – could be the cause for distress, not the virus per se. In addition, maybe some sections of people – the very rich will be well-cloistered for longer – but even for the substantial middle-class whose salaries/livelihood are dependent upon the economy running – I wonder for how long lock-downs can be actually reasonably maintained. Also, the kind of news that one encounters does not make for dollops of hope. Alongwith ways in which the poor are facing nightmares unless the government steps in speedily and provides alternatives, here I hear that doctors, nurses, health workers, flight attendants and pilots are being asked to vacate their rented apartments and are being evicted because people in their neighbourhoods are worried of being infected by them.
There was a lot of brouhaha over the Swine flu (not anywhere near the current levels – of course) but then doctors found out that it was not much worse than the normal flu. Now, maybe this flu will kill off thousands – one of my points is that if we were so terribly, terribly concerned about human lives – we would have probably done a better job at providing for just the basic material needs of millions of human beings around the world whose lives are little better than pack animals and sometimes worse, and done something about backbreaking poverty, war and ethnic/religious riots and a couple of other hundred things that human beings engage in willingly and voluntarily with very little compunction or compassion citing some “necessity”. Secondly, as you have mentioned and others too – I see nothing in the given facts and numbers for which we should let ourselves be hoodwinked into thinking that the virus will claim millions of lives. Unless one believes that this is some giant conspiracy – then one should go and quietly write a piece of science-fiction – not ramble on social media or make announcements about apocalyptic doom. I shall hold onto my horses for now in regard to the other points…but I wonder how many people remember the terribly high concern – in the media and in the minds of people – on the 23rd and onwards of just the previous month.
Also, I would like to mention that through all this I was very impressed by Air India (and even proud, inexplicably enough; I don’t have any personal or tangible investment in Air India that I can see), which carried out multiple evacuation missions to bring people from affected areas back home. Their multiple missions have been noted on Wikipedia. I don’t know of too many other aviation units which have done the same…or maybe they have not been noted.
I shall depart for the nonce. Thank you again for this post.
Regards, Shilpi
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